Political turmoil in Westminster is not conducive to early agreement on Northern Ireland
The protocol, part of the Brexit withdrawal treaty, was designed to avoid a hard north-south border with Ireland that might upset Northern Ireland’s fragile peace. It kept the province in the European Union’s single market for goods. But this necessitates east-west customs and border checks between it and Great Britain, which is outside both the single market and the customs union.
Political turmoil in Westminster is also not conducive to early agreement. Mr Johnson’s troubles at home are being watched carefully in Brussels, where diplomats wonder if it is worth even considering further concessions when they may face a new prime minister in the near future. As a leading contender for the succession, Ms Truss is also constrained. An erstwhile Remainer, she knows she would have her work cut out to win support from hardline pro-Brexit Torys.
Northern Ireland’s economy has recently done better than the rest of the United Kingdom, perhaps reflecting the benefit of the single market. And the biggest party after the elections is expected no longer to be thewould rather engineer the collapse of the power-sharing executive than accept the appointment of a Sinn Fein first minister.
In truth, time has probably run out for an early deal over the protocol. A more flexible British team might have presented the pragmatic concessions offered by Mr Sefcovic last October to eliminate half of all customs checks as a negotiating triumph.
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