After the failure of another U.N.-backed conference, Turkey and Russia are advancing their interests and undermining Western influence in the Mediterranean.
While the international community pushed hard in Berlin two weeks ago to cement a cease-fire between Libya's two main warring parties, it may have silently condemned Libya to a formal split between east and west—or, at the very least, continued chaos.
The best hope for Libya's stability was not"everyone getting along" but, as Libya scholar Dirk Vandewalle wrote in 2013, for Europe to finish what it started: disarm the Tripoli militias that have held the country hostage. Or be content to deal with them for a long time to come. While the rest of the region's politicians were up in arms over the legally toothless maritime agreement, Erdogan sent plane-loads of Syrian fighters, many allegedly with Islamist connections, to Tripoli to fight Haftar. Erdogan also may have provided sophisticated weapons to deprive Haftar of his former air advantage. Two days ago, two Turkish frigates appeared off Tripoli amidst rumors of a landing of more advanced weaponry.
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