WNBA Commissioner's Cup predictions, picks, and odds for the New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces on August 15. WNBA betting best bet and game analysis.
A few weeks ago, I could not have imagined picking the Liberty would cover the spread in this game, but a critical injury to the Aces and New York’s recent dominance has me doing just that.
Twin blowouts marked the prior to two games these titans have played so far, with the Aces striking first on June 29 with a lead that eventually ballooned to 27 points, while the Liberty, in turn, rode a 50-17 second half in their trouncing of Las Vegas on August 6. It’s not that Vegas lost and lost badly in their most recent tilt that informs the analysis here, but rather the structural reasons why the two games looked completely different.
The Aces will need better responses to the pressure the Liberty frontcourt can put on them in the paint, as well as better answers to the rebounding battle where they got doubled up by New York. Jones has fully rounded into form since her offseason was disrupted by a foot fracture and her ability to disrupt at the rim, shoot threes, and post up is a nightmare for the Aces to defend.
But it's not just the defense that is hurt by Parker's absence, it’s perhaps even more costly to their offense. Kiah Stokes is an outstanding defender, but she has significantly less impact on the other side of the ball. Even when Stokes got open, Kelsey Plum and the other Aces guards were looking her off, or hesitating long enough for help to come from the corner into the paint.
I’m not expecting the same poor performance from Wilson just because of Jonquel’s rim protection, but her impact on the Aces guards saw them start to lose confidence for the first time this season. Until I see this Parker-less Aces attack put together multiple solid quarters of offense against a Jones and Stewie-led defense, I’m inclined to think Tuesday’s game will be a nail-biter.
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