Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, is emerging as the frontrunner in the Liberal leadership race. With his economic expertise and international profile, he is seen as a strong contender to lead the party back to power.
As luck would have it, many potentially strong candidates – Dominic LeBlanc, Melanie Joly, François-Philippe Champagne, Christy Clark – have decided not to run. This has left the 59-year-old, an establishment man in anti-establishment times, with only one major likely opponent: Chrystia Freeland. Despite her December split with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, she has been tightly aligned with him for a decade, the second-in-command in recent years.
Canadians want change from their left-leaning politics and Liberals are likely to see the more moderate Mr. Carney as better positioned to deliver it. Donald Trump’s preposterous threats have made economic expertise a most pressing priority and this naturally plays to the strength of the former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England. He’s a man of stature in global finance, and Liberals like how this would play against Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, a career politician and attack dog with little economic pedigree and no experience abroad. added to Mr. Carney’s momentum, showing him leading Ms. Freeland 27 percent to 21 percent among Liberal voters. The aging white guy also benefitted from Mr. Carney tacks left on the issue of climate change, and as he enters the race, that subject has vaulted back into prominence with the apocalyptic Los Angeles fires. What else, one might ask, could go right for Mark Carney? The leadership campaign has barely begun, but it is already looking like it is his to lose. But much could get in the way. There are serious question marks. Many Liberals will take umbrage at his candidacy, feeling he hasn’t paid his dues by running for the party previously when given the opportunity. Many will feel that it is finally time for a woman to be leader. Mr. Carney is also entirely new to retail politics, untested in the trenches of political combat, and he could falter under the strain. Leadership campaigns are won with efficient ground games, and it is yet to be seen whether he can mount one. There’s the question of whether, in these populist times, a big-time banker and baron of the boardrooms can resonate. On he said he was “an outsider,” and though he was born on the outside – the town of Fort Smith in the Northwest Territories – that will be a hard case for him to make. Comparisons with Michael Ignatieff will undoubtedly surface, too, with warnings of how that inexperienced egghead got waxed by Stephen Harper in 2011. He was from the academe. Mr. Carney is from the more challenging streams of high finance, but those are still far gentler waters to swim in than the political ones featuring barracudas like Mr. Poilievre. Mr. Carney’s challenge will be to enunciate a new policy slate that can get the country moving again, to put forward a vision of a dynamic society, a vision that can convince voters that he’s the one who can deliver change. Mr. Carney would be the first leader of the party since Paul Martin to be highly qualified in economics. He is the biggest star candidate the Liberals – or any Canadian party – have attracted in a long time. With the Conservatives’ huge lead in the polls, it should be easy for Mr. Poilievre to attract big-name candidates, but none have surfaced so far. He may be thinking it doesn’t matter – and he may be right. With his global reputation, Mr. Carney is in a position to try marketing himself as someone who can turn Canada’s international reputation around. Ms. Freeland was deputy prime minister in a government where she got on the wrong side of Mr. Trump and where relations fell into disrepair with China and India. There is precedent for a leadership campaign marking a resurgence for a Liberal Party way down in the dumps. The 1984 leadership race saw the party move from double-digits behind the Conservatives to a nine-point Gallup poll lead under new leader John Turner, who proceeded to totally blow it in the general election. A problem this time is that, with the abbreviated leadership campaign, there is a very small window for Mr. Carney to make an impression on the broader electorate. He also faces a difficulty that few politicians welcome: high expectations. In such circumstances, missteps can become magnified. But in so many respects, especially with several high-calibre Liberals not running, the stars are aligning for Mark Carney. Barring big blunders, the stage is set for him to win the leadership
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