The end of the Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle has generally been a good time to own U.S. stocks, but an uncertain economic outlook and stretched valuations could dampen upside this time around. Many investors believe that policymakers are unlikely to raise rates any further, bringing an end to the central bank's most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle in decades. If they are right, stocks could be poised for more gains.
Traders work on the floor of the NYSE in New YorkNEW YORK - The end of the Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle has generally been a good time to own U.S. stocks, but an uncertain economic outlook and stretched valuations could dampen upside this time around.
Investors with a more bearish view, however, say it is only a matter of time before higher rates tighten economic conditions and bring a downturn. The S&P 500 is already up over 16% this year, aided in part by a U.S. economy that has stayed resilient in the face of higher interest rates. Though most investors believe a recession is unlikely in 2023, a slowdown next year remains a possibility for some market participants. One worrying recession signal has been the inverted Treasury yield curve, a market phenomenon that has preceded past downturns.
More of the kind of generally benign inflation data that has come over the last few months, however, could mean the Fed's quarter-point increase in July was the last in a cycle that shook asset prices last year.
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