Lanes are starting to emerge in the 2020 Democratic primary (But FiveThirtyEight still recommends you treat “lanes” with caution.)
within the party, such as progressive voters or black voters. Candidates like Biden and Sanders who dominated overall were also voters’ most popular second choices, no matter who their first choice was. However, fast-forward through four months of campaigning and one debate, and the polling indicates that those lanes may be starting to emerge — although there are three caveats that I’ll spell out shortly.
Let’s look at the data we have. In the past two weeks, at least three pollsters have asked Democratic voters nationwide about their first and second choices. First, aconducted from June 28 to July 2 found that Biden was the first choice of 22 percent of Americans, followed by Sanders at 16 percent, Harris at 10 percent and Warren at 9 percent.
In particular, the 38 percent of Warren supporters whose second choice was Harris stands out in comparison with the much smaller number who preferred Biden or Sanders . Also interesting was that Sanders’s and Harris’s supporters seemed especially incompatible; for example, only 8 percent of Harris supporters chose Sanders as their backup., taken almost concurrently by the Washington Post and ABC News, yielded similar results.
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