Kevin Gausman's two seasons with the Blue Jays have been marked by both success and challenges. This article analyzes his performance, the potential for continued success, and the pressures he faces as the team seeks a championship.
The Toronto Blue Jays signed Kevin Gausman to a five-year, $100 million contract before the 2022 season. Over the past two seasons, Gausman has made 93 starts, accumulating a 3.45 ERA in 540.2 innings pitched. He has recorded 604 strikeouts and a 7.2 b WAR . Gausman has consistently made 31 starts in each of his three seasons with the Jays. However, 2024 proved to be his most challenging year, marked by a 3.83 ERA and a 0.9 b WAR .
Gausman began the season at less than 100% fitness and likely should have started the season on the injured list. The team, lacking suitable replacements, opted for Gausman despite his diminished condition. This decision highlighted the difficult dilemma teams face: choosing a partially healthy star over a fully healthy but less experienced option. Gausman struggled with a 4.50 ERA in April, raising questions about how a different pitcher might have performed in that role. Nevertheless, his performance in the second half of the season significantly improved, offering a positive outlook for the upcoming year. Hopefully, he will enter the 2024 season fully healthy after spring training. At 34 years old, Gausman's ability to maintain his current pace of 31 starts per season is uncertain. While he didn't make many starts in his 20s (203 games, 164 starts, 985.1 innings), since turning 30, he has become a workhorse (126 starts, 732.2 innings). A positive trend suggests that pitchers who don't throw a significant number of innings in their 20s tend to age well. The Jays are hopeful for a few more productive years from Gausman. Gausman concluded the season with a candid interview, expressing his frustration with the constant talk about the team's talent and the lack of tangible success. He emphasized the urgency for the team to win, reminding everyone that he and Chris Bassitt are getting older. In a bid to challenge hitters, Gausman has expanded his repertoire beyond his two-pitch arsenal, adding a slider a couple of years ago and another this year. The Steamer projections anticipate Gausman making 32 starts this season, one more than his previous three seasons, with a 12-11 record, 193 innings (12 more than last year), and a 3.89 ERA. The Blue Jays have been fortunate to have Gausman consistently make 31 starts a year. While the likelihood of this continuing remains uncertain, the Steamer projections suggest it could extend for at least one more year
Blue Jays Kevin Gausman MLB Baseball Pitching Performance Injury ERA WAR Contract Team Expectations
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