The National Bureau of Economic Research says the U.S. economy entered a recession in February 2020. How will we know when it's over?
that the longest-ever U.S. economic expansion peaked and ended in February, which is when the recession began. Then again, the evidence was pretty clear.
All the NBER needs is to know for sure the month that broad economic indicators--especially employment and production--began contracting. The one somewhat curious thing to me, which I'll ask Mr. Poterba about, is that the U.S. still added jobs in February and jobless claims didn't start surging until early March, when the shutdowns began.
What about the whole two-consecutive-quarters-of-negative-GDP to qualify as a recession? That's always been more of a rule of thumb than a hard-and-fast rule. Will this recession even last six months? If not, it would be the briefest--and probably deepest--ever.in September 2010 when it declared the last recession had ended in June of 2009. Most economists have GDP shrinking sharply in the April through June quarter and rebounding from July on.
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