Junk Science Week — Philip Cross: Why we can't trust traffic forecasts

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Junk Science Week — Philip Cross: Why we can't trust traffic forecasts
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Governments should be obligated to provide the best possible service, not degrade it in the name of pursuing climate goals. Read more.

We have seen in the past how the ideological commitment of experts, posing as impartial judges, to a radical reduction of our fossil fuel consumption can cloud their judgment. Early in the debate over a carbon tax, advocates regularly cited studies from the University of Ottawa’s Smart Prosperity Institute on the effects of B.C.’s carbon tax .

Quebec Premier Francois Legault responds to the Opposition over the third link at the legislature in Quebec City.In retrospect, academic claims about the potency of B.C.’s carbon tax were anomalous and erroneous. Instead, Statistics Canada data show B.C.’s greenhouse gas emissions rose from 2009 until the pandemic faster than those in the rest of Canada.

Stubbornly strong demand for fossil fuels has led Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault to muse about replacing a carbon tax with a cap-and-trade system, because the latter provides “emissions reduction certainty.” A carbon tax raises the price and allows demand to adjust, but if people willingly pay the higher tax, then demand and emissions won’t fall.Article content

So government planners in Quebec, informed by the same research community that promulgated a misleading and hard-to-believe story about the responsiveness of B.C.’s gas consumption to taxes, convinced the Legault government that a third link for Quebec City drivers was no longer needed. This is seeing the world as you want it to be, not as it is. Economists call the self-serving interpretation of evidence without outside scrutiny “Strategic Misrepresentation Risk.

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