JPMorgan sees ‘non-trivial risk’ of a technical default on U.S. Treasuries as debt ceiling looms

Firm also expects debate on federal funding bull to run ‘dangerously close’ to its final deadline

JPMorgan expects the U.S. debt ceiling to become an issue as early as next month with the Wall Street bank ascribing a “non-trivial risk” of a technical default on U.S. Treasuries.

The bank said its U.S. rates strategy team expects the Treasury could run out of available resources by the middle of August. “Signs of stress typically start in the T-bill market 2-3 months before the X-date given money market funds , which are large holders of T-bills, will begin to more actively advertise that they don’t hold any bills that mature over those dates,” JPMorgan said.

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