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inflation commentary for most of my adult life. For the person reading who may not be familiar with your work, what do you track and produce in your publication? I look at US government statistics, the major ones that are followed by the public as well as trying to assess the underlying economic reality, along with inflation. That includes economic activity as measured by the gross domestic product , and inflation as measured by the consumer price index .
He wanted them to find ways to lower the cost of living adjustments so they weren't so constrained in terms of the deficit spending they could do. The government made upward adjustments to the employment numbers to make the unemployment rate look better. As I got the alternate numbers together, I started publishing a newsletter called, which offers alternate estimates of the CPI inflation rate the way it used to be calculated. The same changes are occurring with theI also look at employment data, and there are some serious issues with the government employment numbers. I also look for consistency in the numbers over time.
After 6 months, if you're still discouraged, they don't count you anymore. I continue counting. If people are discouraged and they want to work and there are no jobs to be had, they're still unemployed as far as I'm concerned. So I get much higher unemployment readings than the government does with its headline numbers :
So the headline CPI is understated, and if it's used to 'inflation-adjust' the GDP or other economic numbers, it will end up overstating the real economic growth. That's one of the gimmicks the government uses. TD: We're having this conversation in December of 2024. What are your figures showing you in terms of likely annual CPI inflation rate in the USA, you're currently? Right now the government says the headline number is 2.60%, correct?Correct, that's what the government is saying, 2.60%. Before they started playing games with how they measure the CPI, it would be around 10.40%. It's a difference of about 8.
Right now this chart shows that Alternate CPI inflation is a little ahead of gold. But they generally move together. So what I recommend if you're looking for an inflation hedge over time, is to own physical gold. The Federal Reserve is a central bank, and its primary clients are the banking system. It also has responsibilities for monetary policy in the country. But its primary concern is keeping the banking system solvent and afloat. If you look at where the recent inflation came from, it occurred when we hit the pandemic.
They needed to pump money into the system to support banking liquidity and they raised rates to keep the banking system solvent. Their primary function is to protect the banking system. And the big inflation problem came from the money supply creation which is still there. That might be down from the pandemic high of 16.00%, year over year - but as I mentioned, the bulk of the money supply is still there. So the year over year numbers are not yet as meaningful as they could potentially be.
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