Employers were expected to have added a robust 258,000 jobs in July, but the pace of payroll creation is likely to slow in coming months.
and economists expect to see more job losses from companies in construction, technology, retail and finance, among others.
"Somewhere in here, there's going to be an inflection point," said Gapen."The trend in unemployment claims suggests that's in front of us. Jobless claims have been moving higher since April, but they're still super low by historical trends."rose by 6,000 to 260,000 for the week ended July 30, near the highest level since last November.
Zandi said he is not currently expecting a recession, and thinks the Fed is trying to engineer a soft landing without big job losses. He said the payroll numbers could get to around zero. This employment report is one of two the Fed will see before it decides how much to raise interest rates at its September meeting. Some economists expect the Fed will slow down its rate hikes and raise by just a half percentage point instead of the three-quarter point hikes it made in both June and July.Markets will be keying on the strength of the number of workers added, and on wage growth, which is expected to slow slightly. Wages are expected to rise by 4.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute expects unemployment to tick up to 4.3% by the end of the year."It could be that much of that happens in the fourth quarter as a lot of the layoff announcements start to feed into the claims and employment data," said Samana.
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