Javier Milei Brings Uncertainty as Wall Street Weighs Argentina Vote

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Javier Milei Brings Uncertainty as Wall Street Weighs Argentina Vote
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Wall Street is preparing for Argentina’s presidential election to come down to a November run-off after libertarian outsider Javier Milei won surprisingly strong support in a primary vote.

The nation’s already-distressed foreign bonds plunged Monday after Milei, who is running on a platform of dollarizing the economy and “burning down” the central bank, captured about a third of votes cast in the primary election on Sunday.

The nation’s sovereign bonds present an attractive opportunity because valuations are depressed, they’re correlated to commodity prices and there’s potential for a regime change despite Milei’s unexpected PASO win “At this stage, it is not certain whether authorities are able to keep the FX at the new level, but with IMF money it stands as a possibility”“The worst case scenario of a Massa victory continues to look unlikely, the moderate center-right opposition would still be favored in a second round”

In the case of a runoff between Milei and Massa, Rojas expects Milei to be the favorite, likely attracting voters of Horacio Rodriguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich“The surprising win of Javier Milei in primary elections has increased political uncertainty instead of reducing it”“Participation was particularly low, at 70%, and it is unclear how a likely increase in participation would affect each party”“This vote is likely to go to a second round, but the key will be how much turnout...

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