Japan's Lost Decades: Are We on the Same Path?

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Japan's Lost Decades: Are We on the Same Path?
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Market Overview Analysis by Michael Lebowitz covering: S&P 500, Nikkei 225. Read Michael Lebowitz's latest article on Investing.com

Back in 1989, Japan was taking over the world. The country’s economy had grown 6.7% in 1988. Sony had just bought Columbia Pictures, one of the largest Hollywood studios, for $3.45 billion. Japanese property company Mitsubishi Estate took control of Rockefeller Center in New York City that October. When land prices peaked in Tokyo, Japan’s Imperial Palace grounds were more valuable than all the land in Florida.

In 1970, Japan’s GDP was $217 billion. By 1990, it had grown to $3.19 trillion, an astonishing 14.4% annual growth rate. In context, economists have marveled at China’s single-digit growth rate since 2000.Since then, Japan has been plagued by economic stagnation and deflation. The first graph below shows Japan’s GDP has shrunk since 1995. Similarly, prices have been flat over the same period, with numerous bouts of deflation.

One significant consequence of Japan’s prolonged economic stagnation was its impact on the labor market and demographic landscape. High unemployment rates, particularly among the youth, and stagnant wages became the norm. The result was poor sentiment, which led to declines in personal consumption and confidence. Consequently, the desire to have children declined broadly across their population.

Furthermore, they have heavily relied on asset purchases . The World Bank estimates that the BOJ’s assets are a stunning 89% of Japan’s GDP. That is nearly triple that of the Fed. It’s not too late for America to manage her finances better. Unfortunately, most politicians want to get re-elected and will not do what is best for America.

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