The sudden slam to the economy from the omicron Covid variant could show up in January’s employment report as the first big loss of jobs since late 2020.
Swonk said she expects a flat to negative number of jobs, and she said job losses could easily be in a range of several hundred thousand.
For the Federal Reserve, the report should confirm the swift negative reaction in the labor market to omicron, and it is not a surprise. It is also likely to have no impact on Fed policy or interest rate hikes since omicron's effects are expected to be fleeting. "Omicron took a larger-than-expected bite out of the labor market in January with workers out sick and hiring plans put on ice. We forecast a net payroll loss of 215k, but strong household survey gains should help the Fed look through the headline as a one-off," they wrote.
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