Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
“Attendance materially higher for our Breakfast Broker Outlook & Property Tour. Last year, investor focus=converting SSNOI growth into FFOPU growth . This year, we think focus transitioned to NAV validation via private deal flow and SSNOI growth sustainability. Much moreso than prior year,rent trends were very topical, as was identifying potential equity issuers. Importantly, Corporate and Investor sentiment was markedly improved, both y/y and vs.
“Our top picks and estimates are intact. Our Top Growth Picks=CAR, CSH, CIGI, IIP, GRT. Top Value Picks=AP, DIR, HOM, IIP, SVI. Top Income Picks=AP, CRR, CHP, SIA. Recent rating changeWells Fargo strategist Christopher Harvey does not expect market fireworks this afternoon, “The 50bp-vs-25bp argument highlights the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s path. The Fed needs to provide more certain communication on forward guidance so individuals and firms can better plan their investing, purchasing, and balance sheet. If not, they risk needing to add excess accommodation later in the cycle as uncertainty weighs on activity. The Fed has had ample opportunity to evaluate inflation and employment trends; it’s time to be more definitive. Afternoon Fireworks Unlikely.
Stocks are priced for joy. The 1st Fed cut is bullish in a soft landing, but bearish if “hard”; either way, households will likely leave their $18tn in cash. ETFs say the hype cycle for AI is ending. And now corporate CFOs, lower-income consumers, private sector hiring, and commodity & bond markets all hint at a tougher road ahead … The 2025 risk: rate cuts hasten inflation and the 5% world.
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