If Liberal support evaporates in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, and in other Montreal ridings, the alternative for most voters is unlikely to be the Bloc Québecois
As bad as Monday night was for the Liberals, it could have been worse. How? Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats could have won both by-elections., the Liberals are faced with two mortal threats. The biggest and most obvious, stalking them daily in Question Period and across the country, comes from Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. The Tories are far ahead in the polls and stand on the precipice of a majority government.
He won the riding by a whisker and with just 28 per cent of the vote, thanks to an almost-equal three party split. Absent that three-way split, he would not be heading to Ottawa. The BQ has a low ceiling in ridings like LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, and across much of the Liberal fortress of Montreal.The last time the Liberals lost here was in 2011. The near-mortal wound then wasn’t from the Bloc. It was the NDP.
LaSalle-Émard-Verdun has a slim francophone majority, and a large minority of anglophones and allophones. That’s why the BQ vote is likely near or at its ceiling. The NDP hung on to the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona, against a nation-wide Conservative campaign to seduce blue collars, while upping its vote share in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun.
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