The World Bank report published Monday simulates three scenarios for the global oil supply in the event of a small, medium or large disruption.
could be pushed into “uncharted waters” if the violence between Israel and Hamas intensifies, which could result in increased food prices worldwide.
And the threat of escalation looms. Israeli tanks and infantry pushed into Gaza over the weekend as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a “second stage” in the war. Hamas officials have called for more regional assistance from allies, including Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. But during a “medium disruption” – equivalent to the disruptions experienced during the Iraq war – the global oil supply would decline by 3 million to 5 million barrels per day, driving oil prices up possibly by 35%.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, said higher oil prices will inevitably result in higher food prices.
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