Is nickel down but not out?

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Is nickel down but not out?
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Nickel prices have fallen since January of 2023, and in the last two months, but is there still a case for higher prices with increase in AI and the transition to EVs

Preliminary figures for 2025 are forecasting a nickel production surplus of 200,000 tonnes. Employees work at the mining and smelting plant Newco Ferronikeli near the town of Drenas, in Kosovo.Nickel prices have been falling since January of 2023 as production outpaces demand, and have dropped significantly in the past two months. Preliminaryfor 2024 indicate another surplus, with production forecast to rise to 3.7 million tonnes and usage to reach 3.4 million tonnes.

Owing to oversupply, BHP announced it is shutting down its Western Australian nickel projects until 2027. In 2021 BHP had entered into a nickel supply agreement with Tesla Inc. for nickel from these facilities.Historically, close to 70 per cent of refined nickel went into the manufacturing of stainless steel, with that number now closer to 65 per cent. Electric vehicle battery demand now accounts for 15 per cent of overall nickel production.

Global annual vehicle sales are now in the range of 70 to 80 million units. Using the 40 per cent EV projection and a 2-per-cent annual growth in vehicle sales, we would forecast total sales of 90 million units in 2030 with 35 million of them being electric vehicles. Based on an estimate of 40 to 50 kilograms of nickel per vehicle required, we would need between 1.5 and 2.0 million tonnes of nickel annually for these EVs, or greater than 50 per cent of total current production.

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