Is Joe Biden still the front-runner? FiveThirtyEight discusses:
But yeah, voters are certainly still telling pollsters that they think Biden has the best chance of beating Trump and that beating Trump is really important to them.Over time, I think Democratic voters will perceive Warren and Harris as more electable. I also think some Democratic voters will come to understand that they should not say out loud that they view women running for president as unelectable, even if they act on that belief.
And the comparisons between Obama and Harris should be viewed with extreme caution. Democrats view Trump as a threat in a way they did not view the potential GOP nominee in 2008 — and they had not just watched a black person lose in 2004. In other words, I think the number of Democrats spooked by Clinton’s defeat in 2016 and are wary of women for that reason may be understated.But that’s all the more reason for us to be really careful in how we describe the race.
We are already getting coverage of Harris as a flip-floppy candidate. I don’t agree with all of that coverage, but her health care positioning has been very confusing.Totally. That goes back to what Geoffrey was laying out — do we think the current polls are the best reflection of the race or a six-month average?I tend to think polls that cover a longer time span have more value.
So maybe Biden comes out strong in the next debate and recovers to some extent. Some of the voters who moved away from him after the first debate might be open to reconsidering him, too — after all, they supported him once already.
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