If Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders wins in Iowa on Monday, markets could see a new wave of volatility.
Bernie Sanders leads in Iowa polls ahead of Monday's Iowa Democratic presidential caucus.
Democratic presidential hopefuls Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden chat during a break in the fourth Democratic primary debate of the 2020 presidential campaign season co-hosted by The New York Times and CNN at Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio on October 15, 2019.The Iowa Democratic presidential caucus could be a wake-up call for the stock market.
Biden is leading in the third and fourth states to hold votes. He leads by 5.7 percentage points on average in Nevada polls ahead of its Democratic presidential caucus Feb. 22, and he also leads ahead of the Feb. 29 vote in South Carolina, where"Iowa has picked the last four Democratic nominees. The early states, which are often disregarded as not important, create momentum for winners and really start to hurt the losers," Clifton said.
Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren are the most progressive and both favor Medicare for all. Both also would ban fracking, or the shale drilling that has taken the U.S. from a major importer of oil to an exporter and the biggest producer in the world. The election is not top of mind in the bond market, as the Fed meets Wednesday. Fears the coronavirus could hit the economy have driven yields sharply lower, as investors bought Treasurys for safety. The election uncertainty is expected to increase with the Iowa vote, and some bond pros see that as a reason for caution.
In the Iowa polls, Warren is fourth with 14.6%, behind South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg, at 17%, according to RealClearPolitics.com. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar is averaging 9% in Iowa's polls. "I think investor perceptions will do something similar to that. The market will be shifting its odds pretty dramatically about who will be the Democratic nominee," Laperriere said. "Sanders is much more of a risk to the market, but on the other hand, the perception is the odds of him beating Trump are low. Biden is less of a risk for the market, but the odds of him beating Trump are higher.
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