Rising expectations that former President Donald Trump will regain the White House in November are supercharging the so-called Trump trade, on views that his...
- Rising expectations that former President Donald Trump will regain the White House in November are supercharging the so-called Trump trade, on views that his policies will lift corporate profits even while spurring worries about the country’s long-term fiscal health.
"The market is saying that the expectation is that there is going to be a second Trump presidency," said JJ Kinahan, CEO of IG North America and president of online broker tastytrade. "The probabilities are all pointing that way."Online prediction site PredictIt on Tuesday showed bets of an election win at 69 cents for Trump, compared with 53 cents a month ago. Biden stood at 28 cents, compared with 44 cents in mid-June.
"The Trump trade … revolves around the prospect of faster economic growth that favors domestic companies," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. Treasury yields, which move inversely to bond prices, have fallen in recent weeks on expectations that the Fed will ease rates in coming months as U.S. data show a nascent economic downshift. The decline, however, has been interspersed with flareups when yields have shot higher as Trump’s position in the race seemed to improve.
“Given the increased odds of a Republican sweep after this weekend’s tragic event, it makes absolute sense to price in a higher long end of the yield curve,” he said.
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