A fresh reading on inflation and the state of the consumer will take center stage as investors look for clues on how quickly the US economy is slowing.
A volatile week of trading action on Wall Street saw the stock market finish the week just about where it left off last Friday.after investors rapidly moved to price in higher odds of a recession and further easing from the Federal Reserve following last week's July jobs report.
"The July CPI report is likely to further the case that inflation is quieting down even if it has not yet returned all the way back to the Fed's target," Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House wrote in a note to clients.A fresh reading on retail sales will also be closely tracked on Thursday as investors search for clues on whether the US economy — and importantly, the US consumer — is slowing.
"Overall, should the data come in as we expect, we look for the market to price in fewer cuts this year and reduce the likelihood of a large cut in September," Gapen wrote.The latest data from FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters shows S&P 500 companies are pacing for 10.8% year-over-year earnings growth, the highest annual growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2021.
"We're going to see a lot of good days, a lot of bad days, and a lot more market volatility than we've seen most of this year."NFIB Small Business Optimism, July ; Producer Price Index, month over month, July ; PPI, year over year, July Consumer Price Index, month-over-month, July ; Core CPI, month over month, July ; CPI, year over year, July ; Core CPI, year over year, July ; Real average hourly earnings, year over year, July ; MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending Aug.
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