India’s lockdown has failed to stop the virus, but it has succeeded in halting the economy
leaky, India’s lockdown became “localised” this week. In the parts of the country hit hardest by covid-19, restrictions remain. Elsewhere, they have been largely relaxed. People can visit places of worship, but cannot touch idols. They can go outside to shopping malls, but not the gaming arcades or cinemas inside. In Punjab, mall-goers can buy clothes but cannot try them on first.
The lockdown, which began on March 25th, has failed to stop the virus—the caseload continues to grow alarmingly. But it has succeeded in halting the economy. The number of people in work fell to 282m in April, compared with an average of over 400m last year, reckons the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy , a research firm, which asks people if they were employed that day . India’s carmakers did not make a single sale to retailers in April.
The rating agencies have not always been highly regarded in India. In 2017 Arvind Subramanian, then India’s chief economic adviser, accused them of “poor standards” that flattered China and underrated India. But, if anything, global rating firms are now more optimistic about India than some well-informed Indians. Moody’s forecast of -4% growth seem positively rosy compared with that of -12.5% from Pronab Sen, a former chief statistician.
To the agencies, and every other analyst of the country, India has always been a paradox. Its economy is large but its people are poor. Its institutions are strong enough to warrant an investment-grade rating, but its policymaking is not. Its public debt is high, its foreign debt modest. To these long-standing paradoxes, some observers add another. India, they say, is like a Monet painting. Up close, it’s a big old mess. But from afar it still has the power to beguile.
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