Canada should not overestimate its own importance. It’s Beijing not Ottawa that keeps folks up at night in Washington
Giant Panda figure is seen during an event to mark the arrival of two three-year-old giant pandas from China , at the Smithsonian National Zoo in Washington, U.S., October 16, 2024. REUTERS/Nathan HowardWolfgang Alschner is an associate professor at the common law section of the University of Ottawa. He holds the Hyman Soloway Chair in business and trade law., the North American free-trade pact, will be dominated by a country that does not sit at the bargaining table: China .
The spectre of China could be to Canada’s advantage. During initial negotiations in 2018, Canada was caught off guard by U.S. preoccupations with competition between the great powers. That resulted in USMCA’s “This time, Canada must be prepared. It should use the review as an opportunity to reassure the United States – its closest ally and trading partner – while not throwing the relationship with China – its second-largest trading partner – under the bus.
How then should Canada approach the USMCA review? In 2022, Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, outlined the American economic security policy vis-à-vis China as a “” strategy. The idea was to limit a forced decoupling of Sino-American trade relations to a small subset of sectors essential for national security and future prosperity, such as cutting-edge chip production and biotech. Canada’s offer to the U.S.
Crucially, however, that bargain only works in Canada’s favour as long as the yard remains small. Since Mr. Sullivan introduced the idea, there has been considerableas more and more sectors, ever further removed from national security concerns, get sucked into the orbit of trade restrictions, withbeing the latest example. The yard has turned into a park.
The USMCA review therefore provides an important opportunity to demarcate the yard and to reinforce the fence. If successful, Canada can emerge with a deepened economic security partnership with the U.S., help bridge the widening gap between U.S. and Mexican economic interests, while also containing trade tensions with China.
United States Canada Yard China Fence United States Security Jake Sullivan University Of Ottawa USMCA
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