Serious divisions within the Taliban could pitch Afghanistan into civil war, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis and prompting a surge in refugees
The trouble kicked off in mid-September, just days after the Taliban announced the make-up of their interim government. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, one of the group’s founders and now a deputy prime minister, is said to have been dismayed that the cabinet was stuffed with conservatives from the old guard and military hardliners from the Haqqani network, a leading faction in the Taliban’s tapestry of allegiances.
Disputes like the palace row should come as no surprise considering the diversity within the Taliban, says Antonio Giustozzi of King’s College London. As the group prospered and grew beyond its roots, it swallowed, attracted or co-opted all sorts of militant networks and commanders, of which the Haqqani clan is only the best known. That resulted not in a Maoist-style centrally controlled insurgency, but a coalition of commanders bound by some core beliefs.
Given these differences, what is perhaps most remarkable is not the Taliban’s feuding, but their cohesion. “Their greatest skill,” says Mr Giustozzi, is to “keep all of this together despite constant friction and constant argument.” That stems from hard work, says Haroun Rahimi of the American University of Afghanistan. The group might be known for issuing authoritarian edicts to Afghans, but it goes out of its way to seek consensus internally.
Power has brought new challenges to the Taliban’s internal order. During the 1990s, lingering domestic resistance, which they never completely vanquished, helped maintain unity. But the Taliban now rule the entire country, almost uncontested. Thousands of fighters steeped in a culture of militancy are twiddling their thumbs. Not every commander will win a position in the new government. There is little money for those who do.
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