Our calculations show that full hospitals have only lead to a slight increase in the number of people getting vaccinated
Some optimists had hoped that the spread of the Delta variant, though regrettable, might eventually persuade the naysayers to get vaccinated. Local news sites and stations have profiled people who had been sceptical and have now had their jabs. The Douglases in South Central Pennsylvania were vaccine-hesitant until “the Delta variant changed that”. The Columbuswrote about a supervisor at a local plant who said: “The Delta variant was what really got me out.
One way of measuring whether people are more likely to get vaccinated when their neighbours are very ill with covid-19, is to compare county-leveldid this while controlling for potentially confounding variables, like state-level vaccination rates. Our calculations show that full hospitals lead to only a slight increase in the number of people getting vaccinated. For every 10% decrease in availablebeds, there were roughly 14 additional first doses administered per 100,000 people in a county the next week. For a median-sized American county with a population of 26,000, that translates to 3.5 additional first doses, or just half a dose per day.
Polls paint the same picture. As many Americans have scrambled for futile cures like ivermectin, an anti-parasitic drug, interest in the most effective solution—the vaccine—is stuck. Polling from Morning Consult shows that the share of individuals who say they are unwilling to get the vaccine, or are uncertain if they will, has fallen only slightly—from 31% at the end of May to 28% on August 30th.
The remaining Americans who have not had their jabs are not just hesitant but rather hardened—committed to shunning the vaccine despite its availability, safety and efficacy. If the Delta variant, and the wards full of patients suffering from it in local hospitals, cannot change their minds, then it is hard to see what will.
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