If you're a Democratic candidate polling in the low single digits, NateSilver538 has some bad news:
Alexander Tamargo / NBC News: those candidates who are polling in the mid-single-digits or higher. You can certainly posit a rough order of which of these candidates are more likely to win the nomination. I’d much rather wager a few shekels on Joe Biden than Pete Buttigieg, for instance. But I don’t think there’s any hard-and-fast distinction between the top tier and the next-runners-up.of that group — those polling in the low single digits, or worse — I have less welcome news.
In this article, I’m mostly referring to Cory Booker, Beto O’Rourke, Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar, who I’ll refer to as the BOCK candidates for short. Some of this also applies to candidates who didn’t make this week’s debate at all, although they’re in even worse shape. I’mcounting Andew Yang as part of this group, however.
Now, you might look at someone like a Booker or a Klobuchar and assume that they’re better qualified than the candidates who were polling in the low single digits in past nomination races. But that’s not necessarily true. Sure, those races included, but there were also plenty of other senators and governors who were highly plausible nominees but whose campaigns just never really gained traction.
Of course, there are a few caveats and qualifications. Geoffrey’s research covers polling across the entire second half of the pre-election year — that is, from July through December. If Booker or Klobuchar began surging in the polls now, they could finish above that 5 percent threshold over the six-month period. Also, these candidates are running full-fledged campaigns, whereas some of the low-polling names from past nomination cycles spent a lot more time flirting with whether to run or not.
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