The Islamic Republic threatens global stability on more than one front
This isn’t simply a question of Iran’s destructive potential. If it were finally to make a bomb, its most powerful neighbours would have choices to make, too. For years, regional rival Saudi Arabia funded Pakistan’s nuclear program, which conducted its first public nuclear test in May 1998 in response to Indian nuclear tests just two weeks earlier. In the process, the Saudis provided themselves with a source of nuclear weapons if they were ever needed.
Aware of this threat, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in Israel will carefully weigh some very dangerous options. Netanyahu has repeatedly referred to Iran’s nuclear program as an “existential threat” to his country. So far, Israel has limited its response to Iran’s nuclear progress to actions that Israelis call “mowing the grass” — the use of espionage, sabotage attacks and targeted strikes on facilities and scientists to delay Iran’s uranium enrichment progress.
Adding to the tension across Iranian society and within its corridors of power is awareness that, in the not-too-distant future, the country will face its first true leadership transition in decades. Only once in the 44-year history of the Islamic Republic has power passed from one Supreme Leader to another. Ali Khamenei has held that position since 1989, but he will turn 84 next month, and rumours of ill health have dogged him for years.
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