Few Middle East analysts expect an Israeli-Palestinian deal anytime soon. But the Trump plan could have long-lasting consequences
The traditional U.S. position has been that “final status" issues are best resolved between the two parties, meaning that Israel and the Palestinians should agree on the most sensitive topics. Each side has staked out non-negotiable demands, and U.S. officials have long sought to craft compromises on what are often utterly incompatible positions.
“In the American political context, the unfortunate reality is that Trump’s plan will shape U.S. domestic perceptions of what is politically possible,” a former U.S. official who worked on Israeli-Palestinian issues told POLITICO."On refugees, Jerusalem, borders, it will almost certainly make it more difficult for a future president to support proposals that are more forthcoming for the Palestinians.
“The swap areas they are giving the Palestinians is a bunch of desert entirely disconnected from the rest of their state while taking prime real estate in the middle of the West Bank,” Ilan Goldenberg, a former U.S. official and Democrat who follows Israeli-Palestinian issues, tweeted Tuesday. "We knew that we couldn’t do anything that was going to compromise the security of Israel. But we also knew that the Palestinians deserve a better way of life.” —reversed
Danielle Pletka of the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute acknowledged that Trump “forces some hard questions for the Palestinians” but said he also is pushing some hard choices on the Israelis. Trump’s plan also insists that Jerusalem will be the undivided capital of Israel, but at the same time, it calls for a future Palestinian state with a capital in parts of East Jerusalem. Former U.S. officials said Trump is engaging in word play that could in the long run undermine talks.
The White House has said the Palestinians can assume more security responsibility over time, but analysts say it’s unlikely Israel will allow for Palestinian control of security anytime soon. “Any claim that this plan envisions a Palestinian state is just false,” tweeted U.S. Senator Chris Murphy . “The plan allows Israel to control all security matters inside the Palestinian ‘state’, and thus it's not a state at all.”
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