The new Amazon movie Air is getting a worldwide theatrical release, but will it make enough money to break even despite competing against Mario?
Air marks Ben Affleck's return to the director's chair for the first time since Live by Night, but its budget is likely much lower than the 2016 mob movie. The 2023 biopic is based on a true story. It follows Sonny Vaccaro, a Nike employee attempting to negotiate a deal with Michael Jordan and create the Air Jordan basketball shoe line. It marks a departure from Affleck's usual directing efforts, as the filmmaker generally makes films with heavy crime elements.
SCREENRANT VIDEO OF THE DAY SCROLL TO CONTINUE WITH CONTENT Affleck's budgets have gradually increased with each movie, which is generally the case if directors' films are continuously successful. And he had his biggest budget by far with Live by Night, which cost $90 million. Unfortunately, that was a huge mistake, as it was also Affleck's lowest-grossing movie, making just $22 million worldwide . That box office failure could have factored into which project Affleck chose next.
Air's Budget Is Likely Between $20-30 Million While Air's budget hasn't been confirmed by Amazon Studios yet, there are several elements that indicate how much the movie could have cost. Affleck's budgets have generally gotten higher and higher, as The Town cost $37 million, Argo cost $44 million, and Live by Night cost $90 million. However, Air is much more stripped back than any of his previous films, and a dialogue-heavy drama doesn't require an Argo-sized budget.
Other biographical dramas with ensemble casts generally cost $20-30 million. For example, Spotlight cost $20 million, and The Founder had a budget of $25 million. However, other similar movies also had budgets of $50 million and higher, such as Moneyball and The Big Short. And given Air's 1980s setting, the cost of those detailed, period-specific costumes and set designs add up. But one of Affleck's biggest talents is squeezing a lot out of relatively low budgets.
How Much Money Air Needs To Make To Be A Success A movie generally needs to earn 2-2.5 times its budget to be profitable, as that figure accounts for the budget, marketing, and the theatres' cut. That means Air must make $50-75 million to break even, and that's on the conservative side, as Amazon spent $7 million just to play the trailer during Super Bowl LVII .
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