How midterm elections influence the next presidential race Analysis by JimAntle:
As Reagan approached his first-term election, the Federal Reserve had ramped up its efforts to curb inflation. While this pushed the economy into a recession, something Biden would like to avoid, by October 1982, inflation had fallen to a third of its peak. Soon, interest rates started to come down, unemployment declined, and the economy rebounded.
In both cases, political obituaries were written for the Democrats in the White House. Clinton was forced to defend his own relevance at a press conference in 1995."I am relevant,” he protested at an event carried by only one major network. “The Constitution gives me relevance.” Clinton couldn’t get his, and wife Hillary Clinton’s, out of Congress, even with the Democrats controlling both houses. Obama’s passed by narrow margins, becoming law in what Biden famously described as a “big f***ing deal.” Unfortunately for vulnerable Democrats who pushed the Affordable Care Act over the top, voters also had profane thoughts about it. The legislative procedures and political compromises involved in its passage were denounced as corrupt bargains.
Nevertheless, the political obituaries for Clinton and Obama were premature. Instead, the Democrats’ midterm election setbacks actually helped them hold on to the White House. The existence of Republican majorities gave them political foils to run against who were more polarizing than their real general election opponents — then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich in Clinton’s case, the Tea Party as a whole in Obama’s.
“The era of big government is over,” Clinton said in his State of the Union address that year. “But we cannot go back to the time when our citizens were left to fend for themselves.”
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