Investors expect U.S. economic exceptionalism to persist in 2025
U.S. investors are preparing for a swathe of changes in 2025, from tariffs and deregulation to tax policy, that will ripple through markets as President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House, putting the focus on whether the U.S. economy can continue to outperform.
In contrast, although the euro-zone economy grew faster than anticipated in the third quarter, its outlook remains weak due to potential large tariffs from the Trump administration, escalating trade tensions with China and low consumer confidence. Many of the factors that powered a 7% gain for the currency against a basket of peers this year, including relatively robust U.S. economic growth and rising Treasury yields, are expected to continue supporting the dollar.Prospects of heightened inflation could also hinder the Fed from keeping up with interest-rate cuts, even as other central banks proceed with cuts, further lifting the dollar.
Global financial markets may extend generally tranquil trading conditions into the new year but analysts warn that a volatility shock is overdue.
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