Vladimir Putin's Russia relies on arms exports for soft power—but for how much longer?
Royal United Services Institute
"Not impossible, but it is certainly making it more expensive and more cumbersome for them." Brain drain, too, Green said,"is going to weigh on their economy for a long time to come." Two of Moscow's biggest historic customers—China and India—have been investing huge sums in developing their own military industries in recent decades, shifting away from reliance on foreign powers that might undermine national security and constrain both giants politically.between 2017 and 2021, per SIPRI's latest data. Though Russia remains the world's second-largest military exporter behind the U.S., Wezeman said this may not last much longer.
"Russian weapons are still doing fine, they're still capable weapons," Wezeman said."But when you buy weapons today, you look at things which will last for 10 to 50 years...There is a bit of a fear that Russia will not be able to deliver. And that's largely based on the fact that Russia's defense budget—the whole economy—isn't that big."
"As far as I know, India so far has not raised any issues with respect to the quality of Russian equipment." Kumar added that India will continue to shift away from foreign dependence, particularly if foreign partners cannot offer high-tech equipment. "In some ways Russia will lose out on a certain share," Bendett said."In another sense, I think Russia will maintain its share, because losing that is not an option for the Russian defense industry, for its military industrial sector and for the government, where military-to-military contacts and military technical cooperation is a key and very central part of its foreign policy.
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