.FiveThirtyEight picked four quantifiable, objective barometers of electoral prowess—primary performance, favorability, endorsements and fundraising—and calculated them for the past seven nonincumbent Democratic presidential nominees:
Bolded candidates won the general election. Based on the first fundraising report filed after they became the presumptive nominee or, for Biden, the most recent fundraising report available as of April 27, 2020.Biden is raising money at a decent pace by the standards of past Democratic nominees, but it’s important to consider how modern fundraising is easier than ever.
OK! Now that we’ve graded Biden on four fronts, how does his report card look overall? These yardsticks, at least, suggest that he is indeed a weak Democratic presidential nominee by historical standards; he’s below average on everything except fundraising, and even that comes with a big asterisk attached.
But at the same time, how good are these yardsticks, really? They don’t seem strongly correlated with general-election success. Bill Clinton ranks fourth, seventh, third and sixth in them; Obama ranks fifth, second, fourth and first. How a candidate starts the general-election campaign simply isn’t as important as how he finishes it.
Using the first Federal Election Commission report they filed after that date. However, because Biden became the presumptive nominee less than three weeks ago and has not filed a fundraising report since, we just used his most recent report, which runs through March 31.
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