Firms combine polling and census-type data to predict outcomes but with sometimes differing results
Two MRP polls this week predicted huge losses for the Conservatives at the next general election but had reasonably different headline figures.Two MRP polls this week predicted huge losses for the Conservatives at the next general election but had reasonably different headline figures.If an MP’s life wasn’t nerve-racking enough, they must now face polls predicting not just how many seats their party will win, but their own electoral fate.
Why the disparities? One answer is that, as ever, polls are snapshots, not a definitive template for election day. Another is that with MRP polling, arguably even more so than with traditional surveys, what you get out depends on what you put in, not just from sampling but also the complex models used to crunch the data.
“The logic is quite simple,” he said. “It firstly takes everyone’s background information. There is then a probability model which says, OK, based on all this information we have about people, how would each different area, which is made up of these different type of people, therefore vote? And that’s it.”
Chris Hanretty, a professor of politics at Royal Holloway, University of London, who works with Survation on polling, says that while models can be adjusted to take account of tactical voting, awareness of this inevitably varies significantly over time.
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