Britain's drifting property market would probably take a hit from a disorde...
LONDON - Britain’s drifting property market would probably take a hit from a disorderly Brexit, with average prices slipping about 3% nationally in the ensuing six months and as much as 10% in London, a Reuters poll of housing experts found.
But if Britain departs the EU with a transition deal - the scheduled leave date is Oct. 31 - house prices are due a mild 1.5% lift over the following two quarters. They would rise 1.4% in the capital. The survey also indicates in the near-term at least that housing, the bedrock of British household wealth, is not likely to give a lift to the economy, which contracted for the first time in 6-1/2 years in the second quarter.
At the same time, there are fundamentals cushioning the market from falls. Hansen Lu, analyst at consultancy Capital Economics, notes the ongoing shortage of homes, which nearly always underpins British house prices. Others, like Tony Williams of Building Value, are more sanguine about the overall housing market’s prospects following Britain’s impending departure from the EU, no matter how rough.
London house prices, already down 5% from their recent peak, are due to fall 2.0%. They are not due to rise at all next year, followed by a 2.0% lift in 2021, a slightly weaker view than what was predicted a few months ago.
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