In Septembers since 1945, the S&P 500 has declined an average of 0.7%, the worst performance of any month
Recent weeks have been volatile. The S&P 500, which is up nearly 15% this year, has retreated more than 4% from its July 31 high as investors reacted to weakness in China’s economy and a surge in Treasury yields that threatens to make equities less attractive.
Consumer price data due on Sep. 13 needs to walk a similar tightrope to satisfy investors. The Fed’s monetary policy meeting on Sep. 20 stands as another potential source of volatility: Friday’s speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole fueled expectations of another rate increase this year, though a move in September was seen as less likely.
Meanwhile, a feud over spending cuts between hardline and centrist Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives raises the risk that of a fourth federal government shutdown in a decade if lawmakers cannot reach a deal by Sep. 30, when funding runs out with the end of the current fiscal year.
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