High levels of federal spending hurting Canada's fight against inflation: Scotiabank

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High levels of federal spending hurting Canada's fight against inflation: Scotiabank
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\u0027High levels of fiscal spending will necessitate an unnecessarily large crowding out of private spending\u0027

Consumer price data for May are expected to show annual gains in excess of seven per cent — the highest in nearly 40 years. In her speech last week, Freeland said inflation “is a global phenomenon — one driven by factors that no single country is responsible for.”Article content

Like other governments around the world, Trudeau’s administration spent big when COVID-19 shut down large parts of the economy: Program spending briefly rose to almost 30 per cent of gross domestic product. In the April budget, Freeland’s department forecast expenses that remain elevated near 16 per cent of GDP over the next year, higher than the historical average before the pandemic.

Perrault and Lalonde argue that if the government were to pull back on spending, it would allow the Bank of Canada “to end its tightening cycle with a policy rate of 2.25 per cent.” With inflation still climbing, Macklem and his officials are expected to follow the Federal Reserve and deliver a 75-basis-point hike to borrowing costs on July 13. That would bring the benchmark overnight rate to 2.25 per cent, up from the emergency low of 0.25 per cent it was holding at until March.

Action in the overnight swaps market suggests traders see Canada’s central bank rate at 3.75 per cent by this time next year.

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