Sometimes, polls tell you there's a clear front-runner. Sometimes, they're a reminder that anything could happen. IowaCaucuses
a majority either undecided or saying they might change their minds. It’s also worth noting that much of the polling on the race wrapped up a few days ago, meaning any significant last-minute swings toward a candidate might not be fully reflected.In a primary, the voting process more or less resembles the process of being polled: voters pick one candidate from a list. Iowa’s Democratic caucus is
, including provisions for voters to realign their support if their first-choice candidate fails to hit 15% of the initial vote.“It all comes down to turnout” is in the pantheon of election truisms, but it’s especially true of relatively low-turnout events like a caucus. In surveys of Iowa, pollsters’ methods for determining who’s likely to vote appear to make an especially significant difference on the results.
Monmouth University based their topline findings on an electorate that resembles 2008. But the poll also examined several possible turnout scenarios, with the results of even a small swing in turnout ranging from a +6 Biden lead to a +4 Sanders edge.
how sampling and assumptions about turnout can help explain the variation in polls: Pollsters who pick their respondents based on a history of voting in other races have tended to find results more favorable to Biden. Relying on voters’ self-reported likelihood of showing up to caucus, by contrast, seems to give an advantage to Sanders.
The potential for uncertainty and error may be especially heightened by the circumstances of the Iowa caucus, but it’s likely to remain a theme in election polling throughout the year. Following the 2016 general election, when a perfect storm of issues led toand left many voters feeling misled, the survey industry has broadly adopted some fixes, like urging pollsters to weight their results on voters’ levels of education.
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