Here’s what the polls say about Joe Biden’s election chances against Trump:
National polling averages, too, give Biden the edge; ageneral election poll tracker has the former vice president up 6.4 points over Trump.
However, the presumptive nominee’s chances look less set in stone when you look at polls by state. In the 2016 election, Trump showed he can capture the White House without winning the national popular voteLarry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, toldit’s possible Trump could become the first president in U.S.
In an analysis of state-by-state polling conducted in November 2019, one year ahead of the 2020 election, theBiden polling ahead of Trump in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Arizona, and in a dead heat with Trump in Michigan. A recent Florida poll, too, showed Biden beating Trump in the state by 6 points.
Sabato, though, cautioned against reading too far into polling conducted this far out because so much could change between now and November; other state polls, too, have shown the race essentially tied,Trump won in 2016 by barely pulling out victories in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, states he won by a combined margin of around 77,000 votes, even while he lost the popular vote by almost 3 million votes. Polling analysts, including Sabato, say these states will be crucial in 2020 again.
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