Officially, the NBER defines a recession as 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.'
The first quarter saw GDP contract 1.6%, and the"I think it's still just a game of semantics. The trajectory of the economy is clearly lower, whether we're going to define it as [a recession] or not," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at the Bleakley Advisory Group."If anything, the third quarter is going to show further weakness. So you could have three quarters in a row of contraction for GDP.
The organization is generally thought to use six factors: real personal income minus transfer payments, nonfarm payrolls, employment as gauged by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey, real personal consumption expenditures, sales adjusted for price fluctuations and industrial production."If this definition feels involved, it's because it is," Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said in a client note.
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