California has laid out an audacious goal: In 13 years, it should no longer be possible anywhere in the state to buy a new car that runs purely on gasoline. Yet it remains to be seen whether California can turn that vision into a reality. The state’s plan to ban sales of new internal-combustion engine vehicles by 2035, approved by regulators on Thursday, sets strict limits on what automakers can and can’t sell. Failure to meet those targets carries the threat of stiff penalties. But whether the
Traffic on the I-405 Highway in Los Angeles on July, 25, 2019. At least 12 other states are already in line to adopt California's zero-emissions vehicle mandate.
In addition, more than a dozen other states — which, together with California, represent roughly one-third of the American auto market — typically adopt California’s stricter standards on car pollution. Many have signaled that they will follow suit on the new rule, and five are already actively preparing to do so.
The rule also does not affect the hundreds of thousands of used cars and light trucks sold in California each year, raising the possibility that some people could simply hold on to their older gasoline-powered vehicles for longer if they are reluctant to purchase electric models. State officials say those challenges are surmountable, pointing to studies showing that electric vehicles can save money over time thanks to lower fuel and maintenance costs. They also estimate that the price of electric vehicles should become competitive with gasoline-powered models by 2030, if not sooner, as production ramps up and battery costs fall.
Even as automakers race to ramp up production, they could face supply-chain constraints. Ford, for instance, has vowed to invest more than $50 billion in electric vehicle batteries by 2026, but company executives say they are still struggling with a scarcity of critical metals and other minerals used in batteries, such as lithium, cobalt and nickel.
The other big questions surrounding California’s new rule are how many other states adopt it, and whether it could be stopped in its tracks by lawsuits.
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