Harris Needs A Win: Betting Markets Show Trump Rebounding

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Harris Needs A Win: Betting Markets Show Trump Rebounding
Presidential ElectionBetting MarketsKamala Harris
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Recent betting market trends suggest that former President Donald Trump is regaining ground on Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the White House. After a brief period where Harris held the lead, Trump has now surged ahead by 14% according to RealClearPolitics. Experts suggest this shift could be attributed to a late preference cascade among voters and growing dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration.

Harris needs something big to jumpstart her campaign. Her upcoming interview with Brett Baier will either put her back in the game or end her chance at victory.In the days leading up to President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, he trailed former President Donald Trump in the betting markets by up to 48 points. By August 9, however, less than three weeks after Vice President Kamala Harris had replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, Trump’s advantage had been completely erased.

Given that the election is only three weeks away, the ability to anticipate shifts in voter sentiment up to a week out takes on far greater significance.What could explain this sudden shift? First off, the U.S. electorate usually has some sort of late preference cascade as voters lock in on their choices. It’s not unusual to see this, although betting markets may make it easier to spot as it happens; sometimes polling only shows it in retrospect.

Priebus also pointed to the fact that the Harris campaign’s “feeling of joy in the air” that had helped her is “gone.” It has run its course.Raddatz was not amused.on Trump’s recent strength in the betting odds on Sunday. Among the explanations she provides for Harris’s recent weakness are her “word salads.” According to Showalter:

Morrissey agrees. “The only reason to send Harris out on this media blitz would have been to shore up an already eroding position. The betting markets may not even be a leading indicator in that sense, but they have caught the whiff of desperation nonetheless. And as Morrissey’s First Axiom of Dating and Politics states, desperation is not an aphrodisiac.”

So I remain concerned. The Democrats surely have one more “October Surprise” they’re saving for next week. However, can they actually have anything left that would hurt Trump?That’s a fair point.

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