The storm in the Gulf of Mexico will strengthen today. There is some 'good' news but far more potentially 'bad' news. Here's why:
As a meteorologist, I continue to monitor Potential Tropical Cyclone 2. The storm continues to meander in the northern Gulf of Mexico as a broad circulation. The most recent satellite imagery shows a large area of thunderstorm activity and some hints at better organization. As of the morning of July 11th, I have noticed some interesting trends and changes in the models even since yesterday. It is useful to try and decipher the good news and bad news in the current situation.
Sunrise on Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 in the Gulf of Mexico. It is likely to become a Tropical Depression later in the day on July 11th and likely Tropical Storm or Hurricane Barry within the next 1 to 3 days.Following my usual procedure, here is a summary provided by the National Hurricane Center in its 4:00 am forecast discussion and 8:00 am advisory:
Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 is expected to become a tropical depression at some point on Thursday, July 11th. A Hurricane Watch has already been issued for most of the Louisiana coast, and additional watches and warnings may be issued. Models are still projecting the storm to make landfall as a hurricane within the next 48 to 72 hours.
I want to start with the"good" news first, and this is only relatively good news. There is nothing that I say here that should cause anyone to let their guard down. I noticed this morning that most of the major models have trended toward a track that is further east than previous runs.
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