Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD breakout could be on the cards around key US events Gold Fed Currencies DollarIndex CPI
jobs report. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $1,958 and remains coiled between a triangle formation on the charts as the technical analysis shows below.
''For Gold price traders,'' analysts at TD Securities said, ''it is becoming increasingly apparent that participants are acknowledging that we are at 'near-terminal rates', which constrains the bearish case.'' ''Still,'' the analysts said, ''discretionary traders are shying away from deploying their capital hoard into Gold, in line with the market's recent pricing out of cuts on a 12m forward basis.''
''However,'' they explained, ''this occurred in response to strong lagging indicators, whereas leadingstill suggest that pricing for cuts should firm on this horizon, which should ultimately support discretionary trader positioning in the yellow metal. CTA trend followers have recently shed some length, which is increasingly limiting the implications of a surprise hike this meeting.
Meanwhile, Fed tightening expectations have fallen ahead of the FOMC decision Wednesday. ''WIRP suggests only 60% odds of a 25 bp hike, rising to nearly 100% for the May 2-3 meeting,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said. ''We believe the ECB showed the way forward and so the Fed should follow suit and hike rates despite ongoing tensions in the banking system. Only that one 25 bp hike is priced in, while three 25 bp rate cuts are still priced in by year-end.
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