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Gold futures basis the most active June 2024 Comex contract as of 6 pm EDT is trading up $5.60, or 0.24%, and is fixed at $2,351. That being said, volatility in gold has returned, as seen through today’s expanded trading range. Gold opened at $2,342.60, traded to a low of $2,321.70, and a high of $2,372.50 creating over a $50 range between today’s high and lowest values.
Traders have for the most part factored in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank later this year. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of the first rate cut by the Fed in June has contracted a little. Currently, the CME’s probability indicator is predicting a 51.3% likelihood of the first 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in June. This probability indicator also sees only a 30.
The chart above is a weekly chart of gold futures showing our current long-term Fibonacci extension. Gold futures broke through the 61.8% Fibonacci extension when utilizing the move from mid-2018, when gold began to rally from $1,530 in July 2020 to $2,309. The extension begins from the lows that occurred in October 2022 at approximately $1,800. The next potential area of resistance if gold continues to rise is the 78.6% Fibonacci extension that occurs at $2,402.
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