Opinion: Canada’s carbon tax conversation is full of hot air
last week on the cost of federal carbon pricing provided a welcome note of clarity to the debate over climate policy. According to the PBO’s analysis, the majority of households in most provinces will receive more cash in quarterly rebates than they pay out directly and indirectly for the federal fuel charge, including the GST paid.
To be very generous, that is a carefully constructed statement. The whole point of decarbonization policy is to push structural changes in the economy to drastically reduce the use of fossil fuels. Once the cost of those changes is taken into account, the math shifts dramatically. The PBO acknowledges that there may be long-term economic benefits from the green transition, but says those are unlikely to appear by 2030. Calculations from Clean Energy Canada back up the PBO’s view: the environmental think tank projects a bonanza of green jobs by 2050. But through to 2030, the economic upside is much more limited.
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