Franc’s Bumper Rally Spurs Calls for Super-Sized Swiss Rate Cut

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Franc’s Bumper Rally Spurs Calls for Super-Sized Swiss Rate Cut
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(Bloomberg) -- The Swiss franc’s rally to the strongest level in almost a decade has raised the prospect of a large interest rate cut in what could be the...

-- The Swiss franc’s rally to the strongest level in almost a decade has raised the prospect of a large interest rate cut in what could be the first such move by a major central bank this year.While economists forecast the Swiss National Bank will lower rates by another quarter point cut when it next meets on Sept. 26, the probability of half-point reduction has been rising steadily. Market pricing now implies a roughly one-in-three chance, up from zero just a month ago.

The SNB is due to set policy a week after the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. While the market sees a roughly 20% chance of half-point reduction from the US central bank, the probability has been falling. The SNB largely refrained from intervening in the currency market in the first three months of the year. Quarterly intervention figures for the period of April to June will be released at the end of September.“It will be difficult for the SNB to fight against the market,” said Yvan Berthoux, a FX strategist at UBS. He sees the risk of a half-point cut, even as the bank’s economists expect a smaller one.

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