Tornado forecasting has improved, but still deaths keep coming
A family photograph sits on the remains of a tree outside a destroyed home after two deadly back-to-back tornadoes ripped through Beauregard, Ala., on Sunday.Sometimes in forecasting tornadoes, you can get everything technically right, and yet it all goes horribly wrong.
Predicting with any precision where a tornado is going to go is still beyond the limits of meteorology, which is why warnings went out for a large two-county area when a tornado might be only half a mile wide. And getting people to listen and take precautions is another matter altogether. But maybe only 10 to 20 per cent of supercells spawn tornadoes, said prediction centre forecast operations chief Bill Bunting. There are other factors at work, including erratic wind behaviour known as wind shear, the amount of cold air present, even the size of the rain droplets, meteorologists said. And then there are the unknown factors at play.
Bunting’s office might warn people to watch out across a five- or six-county area or even a two- or three-state region, but “only a very, very small area of that risk area will actually experience dangerous conditions,” he said.
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